Can India go behind enemy lines to target Hafeez Saeed and Dawood Ibrahim?

In 2011, American Special Forces conducted a covert operation in Abbottabad, Pakistan to take down their most wanted man, Osama Bin Laden.

There are speculations that India- under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi- may carryout similar strikes targeting Jamat ud-Dawah
Chief Hafiz Sayeed and Dawood Ibrahim.

Newly appointed National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is known for his support for surgical strikes to target anti-India elements inside Pakistani territory. Even the PM has advocated the use of force across the border, at least once.

In the run up to the Lok Sabha polls, in an interview to a leading newspaper, Modi had indicated that he may opt for a ‘covert strikes’ if he comes to power.

When asked to elaborate, Modi replied, “Did US conduct a press conference before carrying out Abbottabad strikes? Giving an indication that a covert military strikes in the lines of US Navy SEALs operation in Abbottabad might well be on his mind.

In an article, written in 2012 by Ajit Doval, the NSA spoke about the importance of covet action. “A low cost sustainable offensive with high deniability aimed to bleed the enemy to submission,” wrote Doval. According to Doval, surgical strikes, curbing infiltration and taking the terrorists face-on are far more advantageous than conventional war, which are
expensive and risk-prone.

Post 26/11 Mumbai Terror Attacks, the two serving chiefs declared that the Indian military had the capabilities to carry out a US style commando raid and Islamabad warning of dire consequences. Indian Air Force had proposed to bomb terror hideouts inside Pakistani territory. The government
turned down the proposal.

To sanction a covert operation outside Indian territory- a political consensus needs to be achieved along with a full-proof military and intelligence plan.

Last year, a news report published in the Hindustan Times had indicated that Indian Armed Forces may have carried out covet operation in the Pakistani territory.

The military intelligence unit set up by former Army Chief General VK Singh may have been involved in sensitive covert operations in Pakistan and was even on the trail of 26/11 mastermind and Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed, the reports said.

The Technical Service Division (TDS) was set up after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks on a defence ministry directive asking for the creation of covert capability. The TSD was raised as a strategic force multiplier for preparing, planning and executing special operations “inside depth areas of countries
of interest and countering enemy efforts within the country by effective covert means.

The objective of TSD was defined as – “The proposed organization (TSD) will enable the military intelligence directorate to provide a quick response
to any act of state-sponsored terrorism with a high degree of deniability. Its task was to carry out special missions and “cover any tracks leading to the organisation”.

It was eventually disbanded after reports surfaces that the unit has spied on ministry officials through off-the-air interceptors.
It is believed that the unit carried out several covet military operations within and outside Indian territory- such as Op Rehbar 1, 2 and 3 (in Kashmir), Op Seven Sisters (Northeast) and Op Deep Strike (Pakistan).

Carrying out a successful covet operation will not be a walk in the park. India will have to revamp its intelligence, political and military structure before adopting the policy of surgical strikes behind enemy lines. India is yet to establish a unified Command Center. The nuclear ability of its neighbours (Pakistan and China) and its not-so-robust military and intelligence setup have proved to be a major road block.

Few years back, a senior Israeli security official in India was asked what was needed to mimic his country’s success in targeted operations.
He replied, “It all boils down to political will. If you send soldiers to hunt down one man, they must know that they will be supported by their government irrespective if elections happen, prime ministers change. If that isn’t there, then it can never happen.